Development of a stochastic bioeconomic model for the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula: Implications for management

Development of a stochastic bioeconomic model for the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula: Implications for management

Although much effort has been dedicated to the management of the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico), managers have yet to incorporate economic aspects to ensure sustainable and profitable exploitation of this fishery resource. We developed a bioeconomic model that incorporated the...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Jurado-Molina, Jesus, García-Meléndez, Jessica Johana, Cortes-Salgado, Miriam
Formato: Online
Lenguaje:eng
spa
Publicado: Iniversidad Autónoma de Baja California 2021
Acceso en línea:https://www.cienciasmarinas.com.mx/index.php/cmarinas/article/view/3206
Etiquetas: Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
id oai:cienciasmarinas.com.mx:article-3206
record_format ojs
institution Ciencias Marinas
collection OJS
language eng
spa
format Online
author Jurado-Molina, Jesus
García-Meléndez, Jessica Johana
Cortes-Salgado, Miriam
spellingShingle Jurado-Molina, Jesus
García-Meléndez, Jessica Johana
Cortes-Salgado, Miriam
Development of a stochastic bioeconomic model for the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula: Implications for management
author_facet Jurado-Molina, Jesus
García-Meléndez, Jessica Johana
Cortes-Salgado, Miriam
author_sort Jurado-Molina, Jesus
title Development of a stochastic bioeconomic model for the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula: Implications for management
title_short Development of a stochastic bioeconomic model for the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula: Implications for management
title_full Development of a stochastic bioeconomic model for the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula: Implications for management
title_fullStr Development of a stochastic bioeconomic model for the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula: Implications for management
title_full_unstemmed Development of a stochastic bioeconomic model for the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula: Implications for management
title_sort development of a stochastic bioeconomic model for the red octopus fishery on the yucatan peninsula: implications for management
description Although much effort has been dedicated to the management of the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico), managers have yet to incorporate economic aspects to ensure sustainable and profitable exploitation of this fishery resource. We developed a bioeconomic model that incorporated the uncertainty for the r and K parameters. We fit 3 models (Schaefer, Fox, and Pella–Tomlinson) to abundance index survey data and used the Akaike information criterion for model selection. The best fit corresponded to the Schaefer model. We built deterministic and stochastic versions of the Gordon–Schaefer model. Economic data (costs and prices) were determined from inter[1]views with fishermen. To estimate the posterior distributions of parameters and indicators, we used Bayesian methods with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The deterministic results suggested that the maximum sustainable income was Mex$851.70 million, with a fishing effort of 3,650 fishing boats, while the maximum sustainable profit was $390.8 million, with a fishing effort of 2,472 fishing boats. The equilibrium point corresponded to an effort of 4,945 fishing boats. Regarding the stochastic model, the MCMC simulation results suggest that the maximum sustainable income distribution was not normal; its average was $856.1 million (SE 1.8) and the most likely value was $849.50 million. The most likely fishing effort at equilibrium was 4,970 fishing boats. Our results suggest the fishery could be operating close to the economic equilibrium point; if this is the case, fishing effort must decrease in order for annual profit to increase. Our approach will help make periodical re-evaluations of the fishery and establish management strategies to ensure the profitable and sustainable exploitation of the red octopus on the Yucatan Peninsula.
publisher Iniversidad Autónoma de Baja California
publishDate 2021
url https://www.cienciasmarinas.com.mx/index.php/cmarinas/article/view/3206
_version_ 1792095473979359232
spelling oai:cienciasmarinas.com.mx:article-32062023-11-24T22:36:01Z Development of a stochastic bioeconomic model for the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula: Implications for management Desarrollo de un modelo bioeconómico estocástico para la pesquería del pulpo rojo en la península de Yucatán: Implicaciones para el manejo Jurado-Molina, Jesus García-Meléndez, Jessica Johana Cortes-Salgado, Miriam red octopus bioeconomic model uncertainty Markov chain Monte Carlo Gordon-Schaefer Pulpo rojo, modelo bioeconómico, incertidumbre, MCMC, Gordon-Schaefer Although much effort has been dedicated to the management of the red octopus fishery on the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico), managers have yet to incorporate economic aspects to ensure sustainable and profitable exploitation of this fishery resource. We developed a bioeconomic model that incorporated the uncertainty for the r and K parameters. We fit 3 models (Schaefer, Fox, and Pella–Tomlinson) to abundance index survey data and used the Akaike information criterion for model selection. The best fit corresponded to the Schaefer model. We built deterministic and stochastic versions of the Gordon–Schaefer model. Economic data (costs and prices) were determined from inter[1]views with fishermen. To estimate the posterior distributions of parameters and indicators, we used Bayesian methods with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The deterministic results suggested that the maximum sustainable income was Mex$851.70 million, with a fishing effort of 3,650 fishing boats, while the maximum sustainable profit was $390.8 million, with a fishing effort of 2,472 fishing boats. The equilibrium point corresponded to an effort of 4,945 fishing boats. Regarding the stochastic model, the MCMC simulation results suggest that the maximum sustainable income distribution was not normal; its average was $856.1 million (SE 1.8) and the most likely value was $849.50 million. The most likely fishing effort at equilibrium was 4,970 fishing boats. Our results suggest the fishery could be operating close to the economic equilibrium point; if this is the case, fishing effort must decrease in order for annual profit to increase. Our approach will help make periodical re-evaluations of the fishery and establish management strategies to ensure the profitable and sustainable exploitation of the red octopus on the Yucatan Peninsula. A pesar del gran esfuerzo dedicado al manejo de la pesquería de pulpo rojo en la península de Yucatán (México), las autoridades pesqueras aún necesitan incorporar aspectos económicos para asegurar la explotación sostenible y rentable de este recurso. Desarrollamos un modelo bioeconómico que incorporó la incertidumbre de los parámetros r y K. Ajustamos 3 modelos (Schaefer, Fox y PellaTomlinson) a los datos de índice de abundancia de campañas de muestreo y utilizamos el criterio de Akaike para la selección del modelo. El mejor ajuste correspondió al modelo de Schaefer. Construimos versiones deterministas y estocásticas del modelo de Gordon-Schaefer. Los datos económicos (costos y precios) se determinaron a partir de entrevistas con pescadores. Para estimar las distribuciones posteriores de los parámetros y los indicadores, utilizamos métodos bayesianos con simulaciones de cadenas de Markov Monte Carlo (CMMC). Los resultados deterministas sugirieron que el ingreso máximo sostenible fue Mex$851.70 millones, con un esfuerzo de pesca de 3,650 embarcaciones pesqueras, mientras que el beneficio máximo sostenible fue de $390.80 millones, con un esfuerzo de pesca de 2,472 embarcaciones pesqueras. El punto de equilibrio correspondió a un esfuerzo de 4,945 embarcaciones pesqueras. Respecto al modelo estocástico, los resultados de la simulación de CMMC sugieren que la distribución del ingreso máximo sostenible no fue normal; su promedio fue de $856.1 millones (error estándar de 1.8) y el valor más probable fue de $849.50 millones. El esfuerzo de pesca de equilibrio más probable fue de 4,970 embarcaciones pesqueras. Nuestros resultados sugieren que la pesquería podría estar operando cerca del punto de equilibrio económico; si este es el caso, el esfuerzo pesquero debería disminuir para incrementar la ganancia anual. Nuestro enfoque permitirá reevaluar la pesquería periódicamente y establecer estrategias de manejo para asegurar una explotación rentable y sustentable del pulpo rojo en la península de Yucatán. Iniversidad Autónoma de Baja California 2021-12-17 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article Artículo Arbitrado application/pdf text/xml text/xml https://www.cienciasmarinas.com.mx/index.php/cmarinas/article/view/3206 10.7773/cm.v47i4.3206 Ciencias Marinas; Vol. 47 No. 4 (2021); 255–268 Ciencias Marinas; Vol. 47 Núm. 4 (2021); 255–268 2395-9053 0185-3880 eng spa https://www.cienciasmarinas.com.mx/index.php/cmarinas/article/view/3206/420420591 https://www.cienciasmarinas.com.mx/index.php/cmarinas/article/view/3206/420420820 https://www.cienciasmarinas.com.mx/index.php/cmarinas/article/view/3206/420420822 Copyright (c) 2021 Ciencias Marinas https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Ejemplares similares