Does Mexico need free trade with the United States?

Does Mexico need free trade with the United States?

Free trade between the United States and Mexico is credited with having developed one of the largest bilateral trading relationships in the world. Yet Mexico-United States trade has been significant for more than a century. Our objective is to show how bilateral trade increased independently of the...

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Asıl Yazarlar: Gerber, James, Liang, Yang
Materyal Türü: Online
Dil:eng
spa
Baskı/Yayın Bilgisi: Universidad Autónoma de Baja California 2022
Online Erişim:https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036
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spelling oai:ojs.localhost:article-10362023-10-05T23:52:04Z Does Mexico need free trade with the United States? ¿Necesita México libre comercio con Estados Unidos? Gerber, James Liang, Yang free trade gravity model bilateral trade trade reform panel data Social sciences Commerce Balance of trade Free trade libre comercio modelo de gravedad comercio bilateral reforma comercial datos de panel Ciencias sociales Comercio Balanza comercial Libre comercio Free trade between the United States and Mexico is credited with having developed one of the largest bilateral trading relationships in the world. Yet Mexico-United States trade has been significant for more than a century. Our objective is to show how bilateral trade increased independently of the trade agreement that took effect in 1994, and to specify the other reasons why trade grew. We measure trade flows from the 1880s to the present and estimate a gravity model for the period 1948-2006. The gravity model shows that the fundamental characteristics of Mexico and the United States explain the volume of trade independently of the trade agreement. The trade agreement reduced uncertainty which likely had a positive effect on trade flows. Our analysis does not estimate the quantitative impact of reduced uncertainty but shows that proximity and size of the market were more significant that the trade agreement. Al libre comercio entre Estados Unidos y México se le atribuye haber desarrollado una de las relaciones bilaterales más grandes del mundo. Sin embargo, el comercio entre México y Estados Unidos ha sido significativo durante más de un siglo. Mostramos cómo aumentó el comercio bilateral independientemente del acuerdo que entró en vigor en 1994, y especificamos las otras razones por las que creció el comercio. Medimos los flujos comerciales desde la década de 1880 hasta el presente y estimamos un modelo de gravedad para el periodo 1948-2006. El modelo de gravedad muestra que las características fundamentales de México y Estados Unidos explican el volumen de comercio independientemente del acuerdo. El acuerdo redujo la incertidumbre, lo que probablemente tuvo un efecto positivo en los flujos comerciales. En el análisis realizado no se  estimó el impacto cuantitativo de la reducción de la incertidumbre, pero muestra que la proximidad y el tamaño del mercado fueron más significativos que el acuerdo comercial. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California 2022-04-29 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf text/html application/epub+zip text/xml application/pdf application/epub+zip text/html text/xml https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036 10.21670/ref.2210094 Estudios Fronterizos Revista; Vol. 23 (2022) Estudios Fronterizos; Vol. 23 (2022) 2395-9134 0187-6961 eng spa https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036/2139 https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036/2140 https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036/2141 https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036/2142 https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036/2182 https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036/2183 https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036/2184 https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036/2185 United States-Mexico. 1948-2006 Estados Unidos-México. 1948-2006 Derechos de autor 2022 Estudios Fronterizos https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
institution Estudios Fronterizos
collection OJS
language eng
spa
format Online
author Gerber, James
Liang, Yang
spellingShingle Gerber, James
Liang, Yang
Does Mexico need free trade with the United States?
author_facet Gerber, James
Liang, Yang
author_sort Gerber, James
title Does Mexico need free trade with the United States?
title_short Does Mexico need free trade with the United States?
title_full Does Mexico need free trade with the United States?
title_fullStr Does Mexico need free trade with the United States?
title_full_unstemmed Does Mexico need free trade with the United States?
title_sort does mexico need free trade with the united states?
description Free trade between the United States and Mexico is credited with having developed one of the largest bilateral trading relationships in the world. Yet Mexico-United States trade has been significant for more than a century. Our objective is to show how bilateral trade increased independently of the trade agreement that took effect in 1994, and to specify the other reasons why trade grew. We measure trade flows from the 1880s to the present and estimate a gravity model for the period 1948-2006. The gravity model shows that the fundamental characteristics of Mexico and the United States explain the volume of trade independently of the trade agreement. The trade agreement reduced uncertainty which likely had a positive effect on trade flows. Our analysis does not estimate the quantitative impact of reduced uncertainty but shows that proximity and size of the market were more significant that the trade agreement.
publisher Universidad Autónoma de Baja California
publishDate 2022
url https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/1036
_version_ 1792095274808639488

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