The impact of Mexico’s foreign public debt over the country’s private investment: A co-integrating analysis

Evidence suggests that the implementation of public policy crowds out private expenditure. It is argued, for example, that public spending inhibits private investment. However, formal evidence indicates that this crowding out effect does not always hold. In particular, it has been shown that it is p...

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Autores principales:	Castillo Ponce, Ramón A., García Meneses, Erika
Formato:	Online
Lenguaje:	spa
Publicado:	Universidad Autónoma de Baja California 2007
Acceso en línea:	https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/197
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spelling	oai:ojs.localhost:article-1972023-01-04T20:04:18Z The impact of Mexico’s foreign public debt over the country’s private investment: A co-integrating analysis El impacto de la deuda externa pública sobre la inversión privada en México: un análisis de cointegración Castillo Ponce, Ramón A. García Meneses, Erika García Meneses, Erika foreign public debt private investment public spending. Social sciences Statistics Economy Demography Capitalism Consumption and demand(lawsuit) Trade deuda externa pública inversión privada gasto público. Ciencias sociales Estadística Economía Demografía Capitalismo Consumo y demanda Comercio Evidence suggests that the implementation of public policy crowds out private expenditure. It is argued, for example, that public spending inhibits private investment. However, formal evidence indicates that this crowding out effect does not always hold. In particular, it has been shown that it is possible to find a complementary relation between public spending and real variables of the private sector such as consumption and investment in the long run. In this document we analyze the short run and long run stochastic dynamics of private investment and foreign public debt in Mexico, a variable that has been scarcely used as a proxy for public spending. With the estimation of an error correction model we derive results that are consistent with what is found in the literature. That is, we identify that, while foreign public debt exhibits a negative relation with private investment in the short run, the relationship becomes positive for longer horizons. Existe una relación de desplazamiento entre variables de política fiscal y el gasto privado. Se argumenta, por ejemplo, que el gasto público desincentiva a la inversión privada. Sin embargo, la evidencia formal indica que esta relación de desplazamiento no siempre se cumple. En particular, se ha mostrado que es posible encontrar una relación de complementariedad entre el gasto público y variables reales del sector privado, como el consumo y la inversión, en el largo plazo. En este trabajo analizamos la dinámica estocástica de corto y de largo plazo de la inversión privada y la deuda externa pública en México, una variable que ha sido poco utilizada como proxy del gasto público. Por medio de la estimación de un modelo de corrección de error, derivamos resultados consistentes con los encontrados en la literatura reciente. Esto es, identificamos que, mientras que la deuda pública externa exhibe una relación inversa con la inversión privada en el corto plazo, esta relación se invierte en horizontes amplios. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California 2007-01-01 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion En inglés By means of the estimation of a model of correction of mistake, we derive consistent results with found in the recent literature Por medio de la estimación de un modelo de corrección de error, derivamos resultados consistentes con los encontrados en la literatura reciente application/pdf text/html https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/197 10.21670/ref.2007.15.a04 Estudios Fronterizos Revista; Vol. 8 No. 15 (2007); 99-119 Estudios Fronterizos; Vol. 8 Núm. 15 (2007); 99-119 2395-9134 0187-6961 spa https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/197/360 https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/197/745 Derechos de autor 2014 Estudios Fronterizos Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
institution	Estudios Fronterizos
collection	OJS
language	spa
format	Online
author	Castillo Ponce, Ramón A. García Meneses, Erika García Meneses, Erika
spellingShingle	Castillo Ponce, Ramón A. García Meneses, Erika García Meneses, Erika The impact of Mexico’s foreign public debt over the country’s private investment: A co-integrating analysis
author_facet	Castillo Ponce, Ramón A. García Meneses, Erika García Meneses, Erika
author_sort	Castillo Ponce, Ramón A.
title	The impact of Mexico’s foreign public debt over the country’s private investment: A co-integrating analysis
title_short	The impact of Mexico’s foreign public debt over the country’s private investment: A co-integrating analysis
title_full	The impact of Mexico’s foreign public debt over the country’s private investment: A co-integrating analysis
title_fullStr	The impact of Mexico’s foreign public debt over the country’s private investment: A co-integrating analysis
title_full_unstemmed	The impact of Mexico’s foreign public debt over the country’s private investment: A co-integrating analysis
title_sort	impact of mexico’s foreign public debt over the country’s private investment: a co-integrating analysis
description	Evidence suggests that the implementation of public policy crowds out private expenditure. It is argued, for example, that public spending inhibits private investment. However, formal evidence indicates that this crowding out effect does not always hold. In particular, it has been shown that it is possible to find a complementary relation between public spending and real variables of the private sector such as consumption and investment in the long run. In this document we analyze the short run and long run stochastic dynamics of private investment and foreign public debt in Mexico, a variable that has been scarcely used as a proxy for public spending. With the estimation of an error correction model we derive results that are consistent with what is found in the literature. That is, we identify that, while foreign public debt exhibits a negative relation with private investment in the short run, the relationship becomes positive for longer horizons.
publisher	Universidad Autónoma de Baja California
publishDate	2007
url	https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/197
_version_	1792095216891592704

The impact of Mexico’s foreign public debt over the country’s private investment: A co-integrating analysis

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