Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles

This paper analyzes the prospect of economic recovery and the comovement of regional and national economy with a focus on business cycles theory in 1997–2010. We estimate the trend and cycle of composition of growth in each entity with the Hodrick–Prescott filter and an autoregressive model, using e...

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Autores principales:	Díaz González, Eliseo, Mendoza Sánchez, Mario Alberto
Formato:	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Lenguaje:	spa
Publicado:	Universidad Autónoma de Baja California 2012
Materias:	business cycles economic recuperation northern border Social sciences Economics Statistics demography Economic cycles economic Fluctuations ciclos económicos recuperación económica frontera norte Ciencias sociales Economía Estadísticas Demografía Ciclos económicos Fluctuaciones económicas
Acceso en línea:	https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98
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id	repositorioinstitucional-20.500.12930-6453
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spelling	repositorioinstitucional-20.500.12930-64532023-05-09T17:04:01Z Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles La crisis y recuperación económica en los estados de la frontera norte. Un análisis de los ciclos económicos Díaz González, Eliseo Mendoza Sánchez, Mario Alberto business cycles economic recuperation northern border Social sciences Economics Statistics demography Economic cycles economic Fluctuations ciclos económicos recuperación económica frontera norte Ciencias sociales Economía Estadísticas Demografía Ciclos económicos Fluctuaciones económicas This paper analyzes the prospect of economic recovery and the comovement of regional and national economy with a focus on business cycles theory in 1997–2010. We estimate the trend and cycle of composition of growth in each entity with the Hodrick–Prescott filter and an autoregressive model, using employment data. The evidence shows that Nuevo Leon has the capacity to return to its trend growth, but Baja California and Chihuahua has less possibility. Finally, short–term dynamics of these economies shows that the degree of synchronization with the national economy seems to play for the recovery of growth. Este trabajo analiza la perspectiva de recuperación económica y el comovimiento de la economía regional y nacional con un enfoque de ciclos económicos en 1997–2010. Se estiman la descomposición de tendencia y ciclo de crecimiento en cada entidad con el filtro Hodrick–Prescott y un modelo autorregresivo, utilizando datos de empleo. Las evidencias revelan que Nuevo León tiene capacidad para regresar a su tendencia de crecimiento, pero Baja California y Chihuahua tienen menor posibilidad. Finalmente, la dinámica de corto plazo de estas economías muestra que el grado de sincronización con la economía nacional parece jugar a favor de la recuperación del crecimiento. 2012-01-01 2021-06-03T03:33:48Z 2021-06-03T03:33:48Z info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Regional economic analysis; Statistics; hypothesis formulation, contrast variables; theoretical review Análisis económico regional; Estadísticas; formulación de hipótesis, contraste de variables; revisión teórica https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98 10.21670/ref.2012.25.a04 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12930/6453 spa https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98/164 https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98/172 Derechos de autor 2014 Estudios Fronterizos, Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades application/pdf text/html Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Estudios Fronterizos Revista; Vol. 13 No. 25 (2012); 89-130 Estudios Fronterizos; Vol. 13 Núm. 25 (2012); 89-130 2395-9134 0187-6961
institution	Repositorio Institucional
collection	DSpace
language	spa
topic	business cycles economic recuperation northern border Social sciences Economics Statistics demography Economic cycles economic Fluctuations ciclos económicos recuperación económica frontera norte Ciencias sociales Economía Estadísticas Demografía Ciclos económicos Fluctuaciones económicas
spellingShingle	business cycles economic recuperation northern border Social sciences Economics Statistics demography Economic cycles economic Fluctuations ciclos económicos recuperación económica frontera norte Ciencias sociales Economía Estadísticas Demografía Ciclos económicos Fluctuaciones económicas Díaz González, Eliseo Mendoza Sánchez, Mario Alberto Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
description	This paper analyzes the prospect of economic recovery and the comovement of regional and national economy with a focus on business cycles theory in 1997–2010. We estimate the trend and cycle of composition of growth in each entity with the Hodrick–Prescott filter and an autoregressive model, using employment data. The evidence shows that Nuevo Leon has the capacity to return to its trend growth, but Baja California and Chihuahua has less possibility. Finally, short–term dynamics of these economies shows that the degree of synchronization with the national economy seems to play for the recovery of growth.
format	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
author	Díaz González, Eliseo Mendoza Sánchez, Mario Alberto
author_facet	Díaz González, Eliseo Mendoza Sánchez, Mario Alberto
author_sort	Díaz González, Eliseo
title	Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
title_short	Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
title_full	Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
title_fullStr	Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
title_full_unstemmed	Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
title_sort	crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. analysis of economic cycles
publisher	Universidad Autónoma de Baja California
publishDate	2012
url	https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98
_version_	1792609201988567040

Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles

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