Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
This paper analyzes the prospect of economic recovery and the comovement of regional and national economy with a focus on business cycles theory in 1997–2010. We estimate the trend and cycle of composition of growth in each entity with the Hodrick–Prescott filter and an autoregressive model, using e...
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| Hlavní autoři: | , |
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| Médium: | Online |
| Jazyk: | spa |
| Vydáno: |
Universidad Autónoma de Baja California
2012
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| On-line přístup: | https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98 |
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| Shrnutí: | This paper analyzes the prospect of economic recovery and the comovement of regional and national economy with a focus on business cycles theory in 1997–2010. We estimate the trend and cycle of composition of growth in each entity with the Hodrick–Prescott filter and an autoregressive model, using employment data. The evidence shows that Nuevo Leon has the capacity to return to its trend growth, but Baja California and Chihuahua has less possibility. Finally, short–term dynamics of these economies shows that the degree of synchronization with the national economy seems to play for the recovery of growth. |
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