Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles

Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles

This paper analyzes the prospect of economic recovery and the comovement of regional and national economy with a focus on business cycles theory in 1997–2010. We estimate the trend and cycle of composition of growth in each entity with the Hodrick–Prescott filter and an autoregressive model, using e...

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Autores principales: Díaz González, Eliseo, Mendoza Sánchez, Mario Alberto
Formato: Online
Lenguaje:spa
Publicado: Universidad Autónoma de Baja California 2012
Acceso en línea:https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98
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spelling oai:ojs.localhost:article-982023-01-04T01:13:31Z Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles La crisis y recuperación económica en los estados de la frontera norte. Un análisis de los ciclos económicos Díaz González, Eliseo Mendoza Sánchez, Mario Alberto business cycles economic recuperation northern border Social sciences Economics Statistics demography Economic cycles economic Fluctuations ciclos económicos recuperación económica frontera norte Ciencias sociales Economía Estadísticas Demografía Ciclos económicos Fluctuaciones económicas This paper analyzes the prospect of economic recovery and the comovement of regional and national economy with a focus on business cycles theory in 1997–2010. We estimate the trend and cycle of composition of growth in each entity with the Hodrick–Prescott filter and an autoregressive model, using employment data. The evidence shows that Nuevo Leon has the capacity to return to its trend growth, but Baja California and Chihuahua has less possibility. Finally, short–term dynamics of these economies shows that the degree of synchronization with the national economy seems to play for the recovery of growth. Este trabajo analiza la perspectiva de recuperación económica y el comovimiento de la economía regional y nacional con un enfoque de ciclos económicos en 1997–2010. Se estiman la descomposición de tendencia y ciclo de crecimiento en cada entidad con el filtro Hodrick–Prescott y un modelo autorregresivo, utilizando datos de empleo. Las evidencias revelan que Nuevo León tiene capacidad para regresar a su tendencia de crecimiento, pero Baja California y Chihuahua tienen menor posibilidad. Finalmente, la dinámica de corto plazo de estas economías muestra que el grado de sincronización con la economía nacional parece jugar a favor de la recuperación del crecimiento. Universidad Autónoma de Baja California 2012-01-01 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Regional economic analysis; Statistics; hypothesis formulation, contrast variables; theoretical review Análisis económico regional; Estadísticas; formulación de hipótesis, contraste de variables; revisión teórica application/pdf text/html https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98 10.21670/ref.2012.25.a04 Estudios Fronterizos Revista; Vol. 13 No. 25 (2012); 89-130 Estudios Fronterizos; Vol. 13 Núm. 25 (2012); 89-130 2395-9134 0187-6961 spa https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98/164 https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98/172 Derechos de autor 2014 Estudios Fronterizos, Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
institution Estudios Fronterizos
collection OJS
language spa
format Online
author Díaz González, Eliseo
Mendoza Sánchez, Mario Alberto
spellingShingle Díaz González, Eliseo
Mendoza Sánchez, Mario Alberto
Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
author_facet Díaz González, Eliseo
Mendoza Sánchez, Mario Alberto
author_sort Díaz González, Eliseo
title Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
title_short Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
title_full Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
title_fullStr Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
title_full_unstemmed Crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. Analysis of economic cycles
title_sort crisis and economic recovery in the states of the northern border. analysis of economic cycles
description This paper analyzes the prospect of economic recovery and the comovement of regional and national economy with a focus on business cycles theory in 1997–2010. We estimate the trend and cycle of composition of growth in each entity with the Hodrick–Prescott filter and an autoregressive model, using employment data. The evidence shows that Nuevo Leon has the capacity to return to its trend growth, but Baja California and Chihuahua has less possibility. Finally, short–term dynamics of these economies shows that the degree of synchronization with the national economy seems to play for the recovery of growth.
publisher Universidad Autónoma de Baja California
publishDate 2012
url https://ref.uabc.mx/ojs/index.php/ref/article/view/98
_version_ 1792095195472330752

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